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Good morning football fans. It’s Thursday, June. 4 - World Cup’s new VAR rule changes, Bayern Munich top Uefa’s club rankings, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
Editor’s note: Thank you for all the messages while our team took a short break. Our normal schedule resumes ahead of the World Cup, so expect to see us in your inbox Monday to Friday. It feels good to be back!
TOP TALKING POINTS
World Cup VAR Changes
Advanced semi-automated offside for VAR will be used for the first time at the World Cup this summer, meaning assistant referees no longer need to delay raising their flags for offside decisions. The new technology sends a real-time audio alert to the assistant if a player is more than 10 cm offside, compared to 50 cm, which was used at the previous Club World Cup. While the decision to raise the flag is in the assistant’s discretion, Fifa hopes that the technology will remove the need for unnecessary passages of play if a player is clearly offside.
This change is part of a host of new VAR updates being introduced at the World Cup. As reported earlier this year, Fifa will use AI-enabled 3D avatars of all 1,248 players for offside decisions to make calls more accurate. The technology will also be expanded to check for incorrectly awarded corner kicks, red cards issued from a second yellow that is clearly incorrect, or cases of mistaken identity when a referee issues a yellow or red card.
In related news, to tackle time-wasting, a referee can now start a five-second countdown if they feel a player is taking too long on a throw-in or goal kick. In addition, players won’t be able to go to the technical area for managerial advice when a goalkeeper goes down injured. Players will be asked to stay put, though there is no official disciplinary action against rule breakers.
… and World Cup Projections
Spain are the 16.1% favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, according to Opta’s prediction model. The 2010 winners are projected to top Group H (Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde), and are then expected to reach the quarter-final, doing so in 52.1% of the 10,000 simulations, then the semi-finals (39%), and the final (25.6%).
France are projected to be the second-favourites with a 13% chance, while England (11.2%) and reigning champions Argentina (10.4%) are the only other nations with above a 10% chance of winning the competition. Portugal (7%), Brazil (6.6%), and Germany (5.1%) are given an outside chance.
For the co-hosts, the United States are given a 1.2% chance by Opta of becoming the first host nation to win the competition since France’s 1998 glory. Mexico are expected to top Group A, though they are given a 1% chance of winning the competition overall. Meanwhile, Jesse Marsch’s Canada side are set to challenge Switzerland for top spot in Group B, with a 42.7% chance of reaching the last 16, but they are projected to have just a 0.5% chance of winning the competition.
Another prediction model, led by American political statistician Nate Silver, has a different ranking. While his projections, known as the PELE rankings, also say that Spain are favourites for the upcoming tournament, the model places Argentina in second, England third, France fourth, and Brazil fifth. Read the full breakdown here.
UEFA’s Rankings Updated
Bayern Munich have become Uefa’s top-ranked men’s club ahead of the 2026-27 season, overtaking Real Madrid for the top spot. The German side are ranked first despite not having reached the Champions League final in the last five years. The rankings are based on a weighted points system over a rolling five-year period, with clubs earning points based on match results across Uefa’s three continental competitions. Each club’s ranking affects its seeding for the next campaign — see the updated rankings here.
Paris Saint-Germain, who have now won back-to-back Champions League titles, have moved up two places to third. The Parisian side also reached the semi-finals in 2023-24, but in both recent editions under the new league phase format, they had to come through the play-off round before reaching the last 16, which has limited the points they've accumulated toward their ranking. Liverpool (4th), Inter Milan (5th), Manchester City (6th), Arsenal (7th), Barcelona (8th), Bayer Leverkusen (9th), and Atletico Madrid (10th) make up the rest of the top 10.
Elsewhere, Tottenham Hotspur are 19th in the overall rankings, having finished fourth in the Champions League league phase this season, despite another poor domestic season. Manchester United have fallen from 11th place to 21st following a season without any European football.
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POLL
Should assistant referees delay raising the flag for offside?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> Manchester United have agreed to sign Brazilian midfielder Ederson from Atalanta for £35m ($47m) (More) | Liverpool have reached a verbal agreement with Andoni Iraola to become the Reds’ next head coach following Arne Slot’s departure (More); dive deeper into why Iraola is suited to Liverpool (More)
> Real Madrid’s presidential candidate Enrique Riquelme has claimed he will immediately announce Erling Haaland if he wins the elections, and has supposedly shown the striker’s signed documents (More) | Real Madrid are close to signing Ibrahima Konate from Liverpool and Denzel Dumfries from Inter Milan, with both signings reportedly green-lighted by incoming manager Jose Mourinho (More) | Barcelona manager Hansi Flick has been named La Liga’s Coach of the Year for the 2025-26 season after leading his team to another title win (More)
> DR Congo's international friendly against Chile in Spain next week has been cancelled after authorities raised health concerns over the Ebola outbreak in the African nation (More); DR Congo were held to a 0-0 draw against Denmark in their first World Cup warm-up (More)
> Napoli have permanently signed former Man United striker Rasmus Hojlund in a deal worth a reported $58m (£43.1m) (More)
Americas
> Pele’s match-worn shirt from the 1958 World Cup final, in which Brazil won and Pele scored twice, will be up for an online auction between June 29 and July 16 and is expected to fetch more than $6m (£4.5m) (More)
> The MLS sees a record 44 players selected for the World Cup, representing 21 clubs and 17 countries; see every player selected from each MLS team (More)
> The NWSL’s 2026 Championship match is set for November 21 at Audi Field in Washington, D.C., and it will be the first time the match will be held in the US capital (More)
Rest of the World
> Azerbaijani club PFK Turan Tovuz are ineligible to participate in next season's Conference League after Uefa rule they were involved match-fixing (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Previous Poll (May 27): Do you like the idea of a halftime show at the World Cup final?
🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🤩 Absolutely (15%)
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🙅♂️ Nope (83%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (2%)
Your punditry takes:
🤩 T.S: “Seems like a good way to acclimate the World Cup to American audiences. Bring it on, I say!”
🙅♂️ L.J: “Absolutely not. I know that the Super Bowl halftime show is a big deal, but football has a very different vibe. I've been to games with pre-game or half-time ‘entertainment’, and at least 90% of the crowd couldn't care less, they just wanted it to be over, myself included. It can't be great for the artists either, performing to a disinterested audience, most of whom won't be fans, whilst some won't have even heard of the acts!”
🙅♂️ R.C: “This isn't the Super Bowl. The World Cup is special in its own way. No player wants to be in the most important game of their life with Shakira blasting outside. Additionally, they're used to 15-minute breaks - the extra five may not seem like a lot, but it's enough for players to cool even further, and that could lead to injury and/or decline in quality.”
✍️ M.J.C: “As long as it’s not politically motivated, fun, upbeat, known among the masses, and doesn’t interfere with the game.”
EXTRA TIME
Google maps of the birth city of every World Cup player. (Best on desktop)
A visual guide to every World Cup stadium.
The players to watch at the 2026 World Cup.
How much do referees get paid at the World Cup?
Which football goalkeepers have won major finals without making a save?
Chelsea launch 2026-27 home kit.
… and Real Madrid’s new kit will have red stripes.
GAME FACE ON
Question: Which stadium will host the most (9) 2026 World Cup matches?
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
Erling Haaland and Rodri are my star signings if I become Real Madrid president
Answer
The Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
