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Good morning football fans. It’s Friday, May. 08 - Championship play-off projections ahead of the semi-finals, tensions hit a boiling point in Real Madrid’s season, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
KEY FIXTURES
Championship Promotion Play-Off semi-finals leg 1: Hull City vs. Millwall, Friday 8, 20:00 BST / 15:00 ET. The last time these sides met was in March, when Millwall won 3-1 away from home. However, that was Hull’s only defeat against Millwall in their last five home games, having won three of the fixtures in that time. Middlesbrough vs. Southampton, Saturday 9, 12:30 BST / 7:30 ET. Southampton haven’t won any of the four meetings since Middlesbrough were last in the Premier League, in 2016-17. The Saints are coming into this match unbeaten in 19 Championship matches, while Boro have won just two of their last 10 such games.
Results…
UEFA Europa League semi-finals: Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham Forest (Agg 4-1) | Freiburg 3-1 Braga (Agg 4-3)
UEFA Conference League semi-finals: Crystal Palace 2-1 Shakhtar D (Agg 5-2) | Strasbourg 0-1 Rayo Vallecano (Agg 0-2)
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TOP TALKING POINTS
Championship Play-Off Projections
The Championship play-offs semi-final first legs begin on Friday (May 8) with Hull City vs. Millwall (20:00 BST / 15:00 ET) and Saturday (May 9) with Middlesbrough vs. Southampton (12:30 BST / 7:30 ET). The winners of the two semi-final ties will meet at Wembley for a place in the Premier League and a financial package worth over £200m ($271m).
Southampton are favourites to win the play-offs at 32.9%, according to Opta’s prediction model, boosted by a 19-match unbeaten run heading into the semi-finals. Recent history also shows that finishing fourth is a good omen, as three of the last four Championship seasons have secured promotion, with Southampton doing so themselves in 2023-24. Despite finishing third, Millwall, the only one of the four play-off contenders to have never played in the Premier League era, are given a slightly lower 29.7% chance of winning promotion.
Middlesbrough (21.2%) and Hull City (16.2%) have an outside chance of securing promotion. Of the four contenders, Hull has the best record in the play-off, having won promotion both times they’ve played it out. Meanwhile, Boro have struggled in past play-offs, failing to win promotion in three attempts.
Dive deeper into the stats behind play-off match-ups here.
Madrid’s Internal Feuds
Real Madrid midfielders Federico Valverde and Aurelien Tchouameni were involved in a heated training-ground confrontation on Thursday that left Valverde needing hospital treatment, according to multiple reports. As first reported in the Spanish outlet Diario AS, during Thursday’s training session, Valverde accused Tchouameni of leaking details of a prior feud between them. He continued pressing the accusations during and after the session, after which Tchouameni allegedly punched the Uruguayan.
In a statement, Madrid confirmed that Valverde had been “diagnosed with a traumatic brain injury” and will need to “rest for ten to 14 days”. The club said that they have decided to open disciplinary proceedings against both players and will announce the outcome “in due course.” Valverde has denied being hit by his teammate — read Valverde’s full statement here.
The development comes after a tense week for Madrid, with reports of friction with Kylian Mbappe and his teammates, resulting in over 30 million signatures from fans calling for the Frenchman to leave the club. Other feuds between Madrid’s manager, Alvaro Arbeloa, and several players, including Dani Ceballos, as well as Antonio Rudiger slapping Alvaro Carreras, have also been reported within the past week.
These incidents come just days before Real Madrid travel to face Barcelona in El Clasico on Sunday (May 10). A win or draw for Barcelona in that match would mathematically secure their 29th La Liga title.
Early World Cup Calls
Analysts at the Bank of America predict that France will win this year’s Fifa World Cup, beating Spain in the final to earn their third title. The bank’s Global Research department also believes that Kylian Mbappe will be the top scorer and that Lamine Yamal will be named player of the tournament. A popular predictions market predicts the same winner, with France as 17% favourites. Fifa’s men’s world rankings place France as the best footballing nation in the world, above Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal — see the full list here.
Banks have a mixed track record on World Cup predictions, as Bloomberg has noted. A London stockbroker correctly tipped Argentina to win in 2022 but wrongly predicted England as runners-up. Japan’s Nomura accurately forecast the 2018 winner using a model based on player value, form, and historical performance. Goldman Sachs ran one million simulations with a similar method but got it wrong, selecting Brazil over eventual champions France.
In related news, World Cup tickets have decreased for over 90% of matches on resale platforms, according to data from TicketData, which tracks ticket prices across three major resale platforms.
POLL
Is there such thing as having too many star players on one team?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> Premier League Matchday 36 kicks off on Saturday (May 9) with Liverpool vs. Chelsea; Man City host Brentford on Saturday, while Arsenal travel to West Ham on Sunday; see every Premier League fixture (More) and table (More) | Following pressure from the club’s supporters’ board, Liverpool have revised plans to increase ticket prices (More/paywall)
> The EFL is investigating Southampton after Middlesbrough lodged a formal complaint over allegations of “unauthorised filming” at their training ground (More)
> Canadian rapper Drake has helped Italian club Venezia, who have been promoted to the Serie A, secure investment from American businessman Tim Leiweke (More); Venezia have worn five different kits this season; see their fashion-forward kits (More)
> Harry Kane has equalled Robert Lewandowski’s record for most goals (55) in one season for Bayern Munich, and he has three games left to break the record (More) | Borussia Dortmund centre-back Niklas Sule will retire from football at the end of the season, aged 30 (More)
> Leicester City Women’s Fans’ Player of the Season and Goal of the Season was won by Alisha Lehmann, who played 415 minutes and scored 1 goal this season (More)
Americas
> Fifa president Gianni Infantino has said he will "personally bring a hot dog and a Coke" to anyone who buys a World Cup final ticket for $2m (More) | President Donald Trump said he “wouldn’t pay” the prices to watch USMNT’s World Cup opener against Paraguay (More)
> Major League Soccer unveils its new Manhattan office (More) | Western Conference rivals meet when Seattle Sounders FC face San Diego FC in Matchday 12's Saturday Showdown (More); see every MLS fixture (More) and Conference Standings (More)
> NWSL’s Racing Louisville host leaders Portland Thorns on Friday (May 8); see every NWSL fixture (More) and Standings (More)
> Toluca have advanced to the Concacaf Champions final, where they will play Tigres, following a 4-0 win over LAFC, which ended 5-2 on aggregate (More)
> USL Championship’s Birmingham Legion FC vs. Miami FC will conclude shortly after publication (Live Results); see every USL Championship result (More) and Conference Standings (More)
Rest of the World
> Al Nassr extended their Saudi Pro League lead to five following their 4-2 away win at Al Shabab (Table); Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 100th SPL goal and 971st goal of his career (More)
> The Australian government has overturned the decision for World Cup matches not to be screened at Melbourne’s Federation Square (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Yesterday’s Poll: Who do you think will win the UEFA Champions League final?
🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🏴 Arsenal (35%)
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🇫🇷 Paris Saint-Germain (65%)
Your punditry takes:
🏴 N.A: "Arsenal will win. Gabriel and Saliba, as a duo, have not conceded an open play goal in the Champions League since April 2024. Arsenal have kept nine clean sheets and conceded 6 goals in 14 Champions League matches. In the knockout stage, two goals conceded, none from open play. There is no way PSG are going to do to Arsenal what they did to Bayern Munich. Defence wins Championships, offence wins ratings.”
🇫🇷 J.P.L: “My prediction is 3-1 for PSG. They're exceptional on both sides of the ball, whereas Arsenal is excellent defensively but typically struggles to score more than a goal in any given match. Arsenal has a shot if they can draw PSG into a defensive war of attrition, but PSG has already shown that they can win that type of game against Bayern, which has an exponentially more explosive offence.”
🇫🇷 T.S: “Arsenal will be shattered compared to PSG’s squad, with some of their best players having played far fewer games in their domestic season than Arsenal. Tactically, there probably isn’t much in it, but PSG’s players will have the extra yard on Arsenal across the tie.”
EXTRA TIME
The numbers behind the Championship play-off’s 40 year history.
Shakira unveils new World Cup song.
How Kane’s consolation goal could earn Germany an extra Champions League spot.
Christian Pulisic appears on the front of Time magazine.
A gallery of Birmingham City’s new stadium.
ESPN revisits its U21 men’s prediction list from eight years ago.
Carragher mends his relationship with Luis Enrique.
GAME FACE ON
Question: Can you name the last five Championship play-off winners?
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
Luis Enrique has sparked a revolution in football, not just for Paris but for football as a whole. He is the best coach in the world.
Answer
Sunderland, Southampton, Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, Brentford.
