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Good morning football fans. It’s Monday, July 13 - The World Cup semi-finals have been set, Fifa is considering expanding the World Cup again, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
TOP TALKING POINTS
World Cup Semi-Finals Set
The 2026 World Cup semi-finals have been set with France, Spain, England, and Argentina booking their spots in the top four. On Tuesday (July 14), France and Spain will face off in Dallas at 15:00 ET (20:00 BST), while Wednesday’s (July 15) semi-final sees England play Argentina in Atlanta at 15:00 ET (20:00 BST).
Notably, it is the first time ever that all the top-ranked teams — Spain (1), Argentina (2), France (3) and England (4) — have made the semi-finals of the World Cup. These nations were protected from playing each other until the later stages of the competition during the draw so that they could save the blockbuster games for later in the tournament, as Fifa suggested. This did require all four teams to top their groups, which they did.
Overall, France remain clear favourites to win the competition with a 34% chance, according to Opta’s prediction model. Spain, who have conceded just one goal this tournament, have a 23.5% chance. While France are favourites going into this fixture, Spain have just set the outright longest unbeaten run in their history, avoiding defeat in each of their last 36 matches.
Meanwhile, the other side of the bracket is given less favourable projections, with England’s chances at 22%, while reigning champions Argentina are given the worst projections at 20.5%. Opta’s model finds it difficult to separate these sides in the semi-final, with England only given a narrow edge of 50.9%.
… and World Cup Expansion
FIFA is considering expanding the men’s World Cup to 64 teams, up from 48, ahead of the next edition in 2030, according to its president Gianni Infantino. The 2026 World Cup is the largest edition since its inception in 1930, when it featured 13 teams, and has recently expanded from a 32-team tournament that ran between 1998 and 2022. The 2030 tournament will be co-hosted in Spain, Morocco, and Portugal, with one-off centenary matches being scheduled for Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay.
Last year, reports emerged that Fifa was considering expanding the tournament again, with Infantino now saying in an interview with Bluewin that the proposal would be examined after this World Cup. Infantino has positioned the expansion as an opportunity for nations that “should be allowed to dream of participating in the World Cup,” suggesting that minnow nations wouldn’t improve their football if they weren’t given the chance to qualify for the World Cup.
The World Cup is by far the biggest money maker for Fifa, and expanding the tournament allows the governing body to commercialise the competition even more. Across their four-year financial cycle, Fifa essentially loses money up until the final year, which ends with the men’s World Cup, and covers the organisation's losses plus adds on significant profits. Of the $13bn Fifa is projected to generate in the current cycle, around $11bn is expected to come from the 2026 World Cup, making up roughly 85% of Fifa’s total revenue cycle.
Football-Depression Link Found
Footballers are more likely to suffer from depression, anxiety and difficulties thinking in mid-life than the general population, a new study by Imperial College London has found. The study, which focused on 142 former professional players aged 30-60, found that 31% scored in a range indicating clinically significant depression, which is 22 percentage points higher than a comparison group of similarly aged people with no history of contact sports or head injuries.
The research found lower grey matter volumes in several brain areas important for memory, decision-making, and emotional regulation. Evidence was also found of reduced overall brain volume, but it did not prove that playing football or repeatedly heading the ball directly caused these changes.
While the study is yet to be peer-reviewed, it does support earlier research, including the 2019 FIELD study, which found that former professional footballers were around 3.5 times more likely to die from neurodegenerative disease than the general population. As such, football authorities in the UK have already introduced restrictions on heading the ball, including limits on high-force heading in professional training and restrictions on heading in children’s football. In Scotland, professional teams are advised not to conduct repeated heading drills on the day before or the day after matches.
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POLL
Is it a good thing that the four protected teams were kept apart and all reached the World Cup semi-finals?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> Jurgen Klopp has agreed in principle to become the new Germany head coach (More) | Former Italy international Paolo Maldini has become the new Italian national team technical director (More)
> Former Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy described the French team as a “very high-level squad. Of course, without Frenchmen,” sparking backlash (More)
> Aston Villa are in the process of finalising the transfer of Freiburg’s Johan Manzambi, despite an agreement in place with Newcastle which lacked player approval (More); see all the transfers in Europe’s top five leagues (More)
Americas
> Norway claim that Jude Bellingham’s first goal in England’s 2-1 win of the World Cup quarter-final shouldn’t have stood as the ball struck one of the spidercam wires in the build-up (More); Fifa share a data sensor graph to show there was no evidence of contact (Watch) | England manager Thomas Tuchel says Declan Rice spent most of the three days before the match in bed with sickness (More)
> Neymar Jr competes at a poker tournament in Las Vegas just six days after Brazil’s elimination from the World Cup (More)
> Trinity Rodman scored in the Washington Spirit’s third straight NWSL victory, which was a 2-0 win over the North Carolina Courage (More); see every NWSL result (More) and standings (More)
Rest of the World
> South Africa’s Jayden Adams has died at the age of 25, just weeks after featuring at the 2026 World Cup (More)
> Senegal have sacked manager Pape Thiaw following the country’s exit at the round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Friday’s Poll: Is this the best World Cup you can remember?
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 👍 Yes (57%)
🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ 🙅♂️ Nope (40%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (3%)
Your punditry takes:
👍 J.H: “Yes. The late goals, the production from the superstars, the surprises from the minnows, and the fanaticism of both teams and fans have made this the best I can remember, surpassing even the great Cups of the 70s and 80s.”
👍 M.S: “I always have a fond place in my heart for the first World Cup I remember watching as a kid: Mexico '86. Platini, Socrates, that iconic Belgian run, Spain, and of course Diego Maradona single-handedly taking Argentina to the win (pun intended!). This World Cup has been amazing to watch, for the performance of the so-called ‘lesser’ nations such as Curacao and Cape Verde, and how all the stars have come out to shine (Haaland, Mbappe, Kane and Messi).”
🙅♂️ T.H: “Although I wasn't happy with the result (I really wanted Zidane to win), I think World Cup 2006 had a perfect mix of team quality, excellent host country logistics (Germany), and minimal controversy regarding travel visas and political interference. It is perhaps the last World Cup I can remember where the overwhelming focus was on the matches, and not on anything else, like VAR. Honourable mention goes to World Cup 2014 in Brazil, because that country knows how to party and celebrate the Beautiful Game.”
🙅♂️ D.B: “Maybe I’m old school, but I don’t like the expanded number of teams. I feel like it has diluted the talent. All groups were much weaker, so the games were less competitive. Also, don’t feel like any third place finishers in a group should advance.”
EXTRA TIME
Fifa is selling 2026 World Cup final pitch in $450 pieces.
The breakout stars from the 2026 World Cup.
What are the key dates for the 2026-27 football season?
Ted Lasso star makes his professional debut.
How David Beckham conquered American advertising.
Find a club to support after the World Cup. (quiz)
GAME FACE ON
Question: Aged 23y 12d, Jude Bellingham is the second-youngest player to score 2+ goals in successive men’s World Cup knockout stage games, after who?
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
Maybe he doesn’t know what it’s like to play in those conditions against Haaland, Odegaard, Nusa and Sorloth.
Answer
Pele in 1958 (17y 249d).
