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Good morning football fans. It’s Tuesday, May. 05 - The Champions League semi-finals second legs, Fifa enters deadlock with World Cup broadcast rights in India and China, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
KEY FIXTURE
UEFA Champions League semi-finals (May 5): Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid (Agg 1-1). Arsenal beat Atletico 4-0 at the Emirates during the league phase of this year’s competition, and the Spaniards have lost six of their last seven away games against English sides in the Champions League. However, Atletico have faced English teams in three previous Uefa semi-final ties and won all three, as well as six of their last seven Uefa semi-final ties overall. See possible line-ups here.
Results…
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TOP TALKING POINTS
Champions League Semis
The Champions League returns for the second leg of the semi-finals to determine this season’s finalists. The final, scheduled for May 30, will be played at the Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary. Dive deeper into the history of the Puskas Arena here.
Tuesday sees Arsenal host Atletico Madrid, with the sides level on aggregate (1-1) following the first leg in Spain’s capital. Arsenal, who are yet to lose a game in the competition so far, are 59% favourites to win the second leg within 90 minutes, according to a popular predictions market. Atletico have already lost three times in England this campaign — 4-0 at Arsenal, 3-2 at Tottenham, and 3-2 at Liverpool — which has added to their five losses in the 15 Champions League matches they’ve played so far. It’s been 10 years since Atletico last featured in a Champions League final, and 20 years since Arsenal lost its only final, against Barcelona.
Elsewhere, on Wednesday, Paris Saint-Germain travel to Bayern Munich with a one-goal advantage following last week’s 5-4 victory in the Parc de Princes. Despite the lead, the same prediction market projects Bayern have a 56% chance of winning within 90 minutes, with PSG at 26% and a draw at 19%. The French side is two goals away from matching the all-time Champions League goal record (45) in a single campaign, albeit in an expanded competition, set by Barcelona in the 1999-00 season. Bayern are three goals away.
World Cup Broadcast Deadlock
FIFA has not yet confirmed the broadcaster for the 2026 World Cup in the world’s most populous nations, India and China. Reuters reports that the lack of broadcast agreements within both regions is unusual at this stage, with rights being sold in these regions well in advance of the previous two editions.
For India, unconfirmed reports suggest Fifa was seeking $100m for broadcast rights for the next two editions of the World Cup, having sold the rights 14 months before the 2022 edition to Reliance for $60m. Now the joint venture between Reliance and Disney is offering just $20m, citing lower viewership in India due to games being played at midnight.
While China has more football fans than any other country, estimated to be around 200 million, no deal has been announced yet. In both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV was the broadcaster and began promotion weeks before the tournament. Fifa says China accounted for nearly 50% of all viewing hours on digital and social platforms globally during the last World Cup.
Premier League Projections
Manchester City’s 3-3 draw away at Everton means they are now five points behind Premier League leaders Arsenal, though Pep Guardiola’s side have a game in hand. The result has significantly downgraded Man City’s chances of winning the title to just 13.8%, according to Opta’s prediction model. With three matches remaining, Arsenal are projected to have a 86% chance. See the Premier League table here.
Meanwhile, sixth place could become a Champions League spot if Aston Villa finish exactly fifth and win the Europa League, because England’s extra Uefa performance place would pass down to sixth. That could create a scenario where the team in sixth place benefits from losing on the final day, if a win for their opponents helps keep Villa in fifth while they still hold on to sixth.
Nottingham Forest’s chances of relegation have fallen to just 0.1% following their 3-1 win over Chelsea on Monday. It leaves Tottenham and West Ham as the likely contenders to drop to the Championship, along with Burnley and Wolves. Following their 2-1 win over Aston Villa on Sunday, Spurs’ relegation projections have also dropped to 21%, while West Ham is given a 78% chance.
POLL
Was PSG vs Bayern Munich in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final (5-4) the best game you've ever watched?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> West Ham United want Nuno Espirito Santo to carry on as their head coach even if they are relegated from the Premier League (More/paywalled)
> Real Madrid’s Ferland Mendy will be out of the season with an injury, and will likely be sidelined for five months with surgery to follow; Los Blancos have suffered 120 injuries in the last two seasons (More)
> Hearts have restored their three-goal lead at the top of the Scottish Premiership with three games to play following their 2-1 win against third-placed Rangers (Match Report)
> The Dutch league has averted a potential crisis after a court ruled against NAC Breda’s attempts to force a replay of their league match against Go Ahead Eagles (More); read the full context in Route One’s Monday edition (More)
> West Ham Women move to 10th in the Women’s Super League after a 2-0 away win at Aston Villa (More); Dive deeper into the data behind Manchester City’s title charge (More)
Americas
> Tigres and Nashville (Agg 1-0) meet in the Concacaf Champions Cup semi-final leg 2 on Tuesday (May 5) (More)
> NWSL expansion side Boston Legacy beat the Denver Summit 3-2 for the club’s first regular-season victory (More); The Portland Thorns still lead the table after eight matches; see the NWSL Standings (More)
Rest of the World
> North Korean soccer club Naegohyang Women’s FC will play a match against South Korea's Suwon FC Women in the semi-final of the Women’s Asian Champions League; the last time North Korea sent a team to the south was in 2014 (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Yesterday’s Poll: Has Michael Carrick done enough to earn the Manchester United job on a permanent basis?
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 👍 Yes (91%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🙅♂️ Nope (6%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (3%)
Your punditry takes:
👍 R.F: “He’s done a job that seemed impossible all of six months ago. Third in the table, qualified for Champions League, and beaten the likes of Arsenal, City, Liverpool, Villa and Chelsea. Give him the job!”
👍 R.Z: “Manchester United never back their managers, and if there is a time to do so, then it is now. He has brought this team back to what it once was, and the fans love him. He’s exceptional tactically, as well as helping the team mentally. The players finally look like they have passion. And that’s coming from a Liverpool fan.”
🙅♂️ Y.L: “Yes, he’s done a good job. But it will be a completely different situation next season, especially now they’ve secured Champions League football. Preparing for just one game a week is possible for a decent manager, but only truly great managers can handle two or three fixtures per week and still thrive.”
EXTRA TIME
How countries use the World Cup to build identity.
Check out Bayern Munich’s new stripy home shirt.
The case for and against Carrick’s Man United appointment.
Predicting what the future of football will be.
The (updated) numbers behind Kane’s record-breaking season.
Understanding why Leicester City collapsed. (video)
GAME FACE ON
Question: Which club currently in the Premier League is recognised as the oldest club, founded in 1865?
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
We changed hotels because this one was cheaper.
Answer
Nottingham Forest.
