GM football fans. It’s Wednesday, Oct. 29 - New Premier League projections mean it’s all to lose for Arsenal, Lionel Messi expresses doubt over whether he’ll feature in next year’s World Cup, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
KEY FIXTURES
English League Cup, Last 16 (Oct 29): Arsenal vs. Brighton, 19:45 GMT / 15:45 ET. Brighton are winless in each of their last four meetings with Arsenal in all competitions. However, Arsenal have only recorded one win from their last five home games against Brighton across all competitions, losing on three occasions. Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace, 19:45 GMT / 15:45 ET. Liverpool have progressed from 12 of their last 14 EFL Cup ties against Premier League opposition. That said, the Reds haven’t won any of their past three home meetings with Palace. Newcastle United vs. Tottenham, 20:00 GMT / 16:00 ET. Newcastle have been victorious in four of their last five matches in all competitions, and have won their last three games against Tottenham. See every English League Cup fixture here.
Results…
English League Cup: Grimsby 0-5 Brentford | Wycombe 1-1 Fulham (Fulham win 5-4 on pens) | Wrexham 1-2 Cardiff City
Women’s Nations League, Semi-Finals: Sweden 0-1 Spain (Agg 0-5) | France 2-2 Germany (Agg 2-3)
Women’s International Friendlies: England 3-0 Australia | Italy 0-1 Brazil | Scotland 3-4 Switzerland | Netherlands 1-0 Canada | Wales 2-5 Poland
TOP TALKING POINTS
EPL Tradition Disrupted
Only one Premier League match is reportedly expected to take place on Boxing Day this year, ending the long-standing tradition of a full round of fixtures on December 26. The change is likely to take place because Boxing Day falls on a Friday this year, and the league must deliver 33 weekends of fixtures as part of its commitment to broadcasters. To fulfil this obligation, the Premier League is expected to push games to Saturday and Sunday.
The expansion of Uefa competitions and the FA Cup’s use of additional weekends has reduced available dates in the domestic calendar. However, both the EFL and National League will maintain tradition, keeping their full Boxing Day schedules.
The last time Boxing Day fell on a Friday, in 2014, there was a full round of top-flight games. In 1993, Boxing Day fell on a Sunday and only three top-flight matches were held; there were two in 1981, the lowest number since the end of the war in 1945.
Dive deeper into the Premier League’s best Boxing Day moments and matches here.
Messi’s Rare Interview
Lionel Messi has said he hopes to defend Argentina’s World Cup title next year but has not yet decided if he will play. “I would like to be there. To feel well and to be an important part of helping my national team, if I am there,” Messi said in an interview with NBC News. Watch Messi discuss whether he will feature in the World Cup here (w/ subtitles).
In the same interview, the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner called on MLS to loosen its spending restrictions if it wants to become a top global league. “Every team should have the opportunity to bring in players and sign whoever each team wants — without limitations or rules for players to bring them in,” he said, referring to the league’s salary cap and roster regulations, championed by commissioner Don Garber.
Discussions about modifying these rules altogether have circulated for years, but have accelerated since Messi’s arrival and Inter Miami’s success on and off the field. “I think that if [teams] were given the freedom, many more important players would come and help the growth of the United States,” Messi continued.
Premier League Projections
Following the conclusion of Matchday 9, Premier League leaders Arsenal have been given a 67% chance of winning the league, according to Opta’s prediction model. The league leaders have faced the fewest shots (72), the fewest shots on target (19), the lowest xG (5.3) and conceded the fewest goals (3) in the Premier League this season. Mikel Arteta’s side are projected to finish on 80 points, four fewer than Liverpool’s title-winning total last season, to secure their first Premier League crown in 21 years.
Despite sitting fifth in the table, Manchester City are second-favourites with a predicted 12.4% chance, while Liverpool, after four straight league defeats, have dropped to third-favourites on 11%. Elsewhere, second-place Bournemouth are given just a 1.47% chance, edged by Chelsea (1.68%) and Aston Villa (1.5%).
At the other end of the table, fourth-place Sunderland’s chance of relegation now stands at just under 10%, despite beginning the season with a 66% chance of relegation. According to Opta, fellow newbies Leeds and Burnley are also just outside the relegation spots, with Wolves (81%), West Ham (66%), and Nottingham Forest (42%) the most likely to go down.
Dive deeper into how the newly promoted sides are bucking the trend here.
POLL
Have Arsenal been brilliant this season, or have others underperformed?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> Paris Saint-Germain posted record revenues in the 2024-25 season of €837m ($976.11m); $175m was generated from matchday income, with the Parc des Princes sold out for 170 consecutive matches (More)
> The relationship between Vinicius Jnr and Xabi Alonso has reportedly deteriorated after the forward reacted angrily to being substituted in Sunday's Clasico (More)
> Bayern Munich can extend their 13-match winning run across all competitions in Wednesday’s German Cup second round at Cologne (More) | Borussia Dortmund advanced after beating hosting Eintracht Frankfurt 4-2 on penalties (More)
> Inter Milan goalkeeper Josep Martinez, 27, has reportedly run over and killed an 81-year-old man in a motorised wheelchair on his way to training (More)
Americas
> Minnesota won 3-2 on penalties in Game 1 of the MLS Cup play-offs against Seattle (More) | Charlotte vs. New York City to conclude shortly after publication (Live Result)
> Kansas City Current and San Diego Wave FC will take part in the inaugural World Sevens Football (W7F) Americas tournament (More)
> 46 people were reportedly injured on Monday when a bus carrying Flamengo fans en route to Buenos Aires overturned on a highway in Brazil (More)
> Boca Juniors staged a second-half comeback to beat Barracas Central 3-1 in Argentina’s Clasura competition (More); see the league standings (More)
Rest of the World
> Reigning champions Al-Ittihad reached the quarter-final of the Saudi King's Cup of Champions after edging out Pro League leaders Al-Nassr 2-1 (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Yesterday’s Poll: Around 28% of Premier League goals this season have come from set pieces–up 7% from last season. Do you like this trend?
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 👍 Yes (52%)
🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ 🙅♂️ Nope (44%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (4%)
Your punditry takes:
👍 D.M.C: “Set-piece goals are exciting and fun to watch. Long throws have become a new tactical element, and more footballers are attempting audacious FKs and corners. Managers will have to learn to defend more creatively. This is how the game evolves.”
👍 G.R: “In my opinion, it doesn’t matter how a goal is scored. The aim of the game is to put the ball in the net. Teams and pundits should not moan about set pieces, it is part of the game now, and it’s not new.”
✍️ H.G: “Things seem to be cyclical, and if that's how teams are getting over the line, can you blame them?”
EXTRA TIME
What’s going so wrong for Liverpool? (analysis)
Aaron Ramsey ups reward for missing dog to $20k.
The man with 3,000 football kits.
… and Germany’s home World Cup kit leaked.
Meet Aberdeen’s sporting director who stole a penguin.
Why all 16 playoff teams will (and won't) win MLS Cup.
Watch the magic of Garrincha, in highlights.
GAME FACE ON
Question: Chelsea are the only Premier League side to have not featured a player over 30 in a matchday squad this season. Can you name the last player aged 30 or over to play for the Blues in the top flight?
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
Scroll below for the answer.
I hope that God grants me the chance to participate in the World Cup again.
Answer
Thiago Silva.
