GM football fans. It’s Friday, August. 8 - Premier League projections for the upcoming season, the Ballon d’Or shortlist has been released, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
KEY FIXTURE
EFL Championship: Birmingham City vs. Ipswich Town, 20:00 BST / 15:00 ET. Birmingham earned 111 points from 46 matches to clinch the League One title last season, breaking the EFL record points tally for a single season. They were also unbeaten at home last season, and have never lost to Ipswich on their turf in seven matches. However, Ipswich have won all five of their pre-season matches, scoring 15 and conceding just three. See all Championship fixtures here.
TV Channels: Sky Sports (UK) | Paramount+ / fuboTV (US) | DAZN (Canada)
Results…
Europa League, 3rd qualifying round (Results)
TOP TALKING POINTS
Premier League Projections
The 2025–26 Premier League, which begins on Friday, 15 August, will be the 34th season of the Premier League and the 127th season of top-flight English football. With a week before the opening fixture, Liverpool vs. AFC Bournemouth, see every fixture here.
Holders Liverpool are 28.5% favourites to repeat last season’s success, according to Opta’s prediction model. Arne Slot was given just a 5.1% chance of winning the Premier League in his first season, and they’ve now spent over £250m on transfers. Meanwhile, the model has nearly doubled Arsenal’s title chances from last season (12.2%) to 24.3%, though it still sees their most likely outcome as finishing second for a fourth straight season. Manchester City are given an 18.8% chance of winning the league—a significant drop from last season’s 82.2% projection.
Those with an outside chance of glory are Chelsea (8.4%), Newcastle (5.1%), and Aston Villa (5.1%), while Manchester United (0.6%) and Tottenham (0.3%) are deemed unlikely to go from the bottom half to first place in the space of a year.
As has been the case for the past two seasons, the model predicts that all three newly promoted sides will return to the Championship. Sunderland, who have spent around £123m on transfers, are given a 66.4% chance of relegation, while Leeds (48.1%) and Burnley (45.9%) are also considered likely to go down. Wolves are the next closest with a 26.4% chance. See the predicted points for each team here.
Ballon d’Or Nominees Confirmed
The 30-name shortlists have been confirmed for the men’s and women’s Ballon d’Or, and the winner will be announced in Paris on September 22. See the men’s shortlist here and women’s shortlist here.
Paris Saint-Germain players are the main contingent in the men’s shortlist, with nine featuring amongst the 30 selected. England internationals Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer, Declan Rice, and Harry Kane are also on the 30-player shortlist, while Scotland midfielder Scott McTominay has been nominated for the first time after winning the Serie A title with Napoli. Other notable nominees include Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, Raphina, and Mohamed Salah. Following the shortlist, see a prediction of the rankings here.
Spain and England dominate the women’s shortlist. Five of England’s Euro 2025-winning squad have been nominated, including Lucy Bronze, Hannah Hampton, Chloe Kelly, Alessia Russo, and Leah Williamson. Kelly and Russo join Spain’s Aitana Bonmati, Mariona Caldentey, and Alexia Putellas as the favourites to win the award—here’s why.
Antonio Conte, Luis Enrique, Hansi Flick, Enzo Maresca, and Arne Slot are all nominated for the Men’s Team Coach of the Year award. For the women’s game, Sonia Bompastor, Arthur Elias, Justine Madugu, Renee Slegers, and Sarina Wiegman have been nominated.
Liga MX Viewership Recovers
The new Liga MX Apertura season is averaging 501,000 viewers to date across TelevisaUnivision networks, keeping it on pace to remain the most-watched football league in the United States. These numbers continue the momentum for Spanish-language broadcasters, who captured over 60% of all football viewership in the U.S. this summer.
Liga MX’s viewership took a hit last season following a series of decisions that irked fans of Mexican football. These included suspending promotion and relegation until 2026, launching the Leagues Cup with MLS, where no games are held in Mexico, and the continued inability to secure a league-wide media rights deal.
The Apertura continues this weekend following the round of Leagues Cup fixtures. Pachuca, who face Atlas on Saturday, are currently leading the table after winning all three of their opening fixtures. Meanwhile, third-place Tigres UANL won both of their opening games and have a match in hand. See all Liga MX fixtures here.
Dive deeper into why the Mexican top flight splits their league into Apertura and Clausura seasons here.
POLL
Do you think the Ballon d’Or usually goes to the right player?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> Manchester United have agreed a deal to sign Benjamin Sesko from RB Leipzig for £73.7m (More) | Tottenham’s James Maddison has suffered an ACL injury, which required surgery and is expected to miss the majority of the new season (More); Spurs lost 4-0 to Bayern Munich in a pre-season friendly on Thursday (Match Report)
> Villarreal have completed the signing of Thomas Partey despite his sexual assault charges (More); hundreds of Villarreal fans signed a petition against the signing (More)
> The Spanish women’s national team has knocked the U.S. off the top spot in Fifa’s latest women’s rankings; England have moved up one place to fourth (More)
> United States winger Tim Weah has completed a move to Ligue 1’s Marseille for €18m after two years at Juventus (More)
Americas
> Luis Suarez scored and had two assists as a Messi-less Inter Miami beat Pumas 3-1 to advance in the Leagues Cup (More); see all Leagues Cup results (More)
> Former Manchester City women’s coach Nick Cushing has been named head coach of the expansion Denver Summit in the NWSL (More); North Carolina Courage fired head coach Sean Nahas (More) | Kansas City Current lead the NWSL table by 10 points; see the weekend’s upcoming fixtures (More)
> USL Championship continues with FC Tulsa leading the Western Conference and Louisville City leading the Eastern Conference; see upcoming fixtures (More)
Rest of the World
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ROUTERS’ VOICE
Yesterday’s Poll: Do you think mandatory pay cuts for relegated teams are a good idea?
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 👍 Yes (80%)
🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🙅♂️ Nope (17%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (3%)
Your punditry takes:
👍 K.W: “It will compel players to play harder every game to get maximum points, knowing they could potentially take a pay cut. Money talks!”
👍 J.L: “What other incentive would be as effective to play hard and avoid relegation? Plus, it helps the clubs that go down cut costs automatically, and it's policy; it's not personal. Great idea.”
🙅♂️ I.A: “This will make it harder for any club that is expected to be relegated at the start of the season to sign great young players. Which young player wants to go somewhere where there is a high chance of a salary cut? Regulations can, on the surface, sound good but often lead to undesired consequences.”
✍️ L.K: “I don't know that it's necessary. Most of the highest-paid footballers will leave a relegated team anyway.”
EXTRA TIME
Every transfer in Europe’s top five leagues. (live tracker)
The best stats for all 30 Ballon d’Or nominees.
LA politician thinks Son will play for USMNT.
One potential breakout star from each Prem team.
How McTominay became a Ballon d'Or nominee.
The best away kits in Europe this season.
Banned fan cheers on non-league team from tree.
GAME FACE ON
Name the clubs that match the following nicknames:
Die Roten (The Reds)
Los Colchoneros (The Mattress Makers)
The Hatters
Die Launische Diva (The Moody Diva)
La Vecchia Signora (The Old Lady)
Scroll below for the answer.
ON TODAY
Championship
Birmingham City vs. Ipswich Town (20:00)
Scottish Championship
Ross County vs. St Johnstone (19:45)
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs. Sporting CP (20:15)
Turkish Super Lig
Gaziantep FK vs. Galatasaray (19:30)
*All times in UK. ET -5. CDT -6. PDT -8. MDT -7. CET +1.
Answer
Bayern Munich. Atletico Madrid. Luton Town. Eintracht Frankfurt. Juventus.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
We hope to face Paris Saint-Germain this season so we can find out who is better.