GM football fans. It’s Monday, Dec. 22 - The latest Premier League projections, Kylian Mbappe matches Cristiano Ronaldo’s Real Madrid record, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
KEY FIXTURE
Premier League MD17 (Dec 22): Fulham vs. Nottingham Forest, 20:00 GMT / 15:00 ET. Forest have lost all three of their Premier League matches away at Fulham, with an aggregate scoreline of 9-1. While the hosts have both scored and conceded in each of their last five games in all competitions, they’ve lost their last two league home games. See the Premier League table here.
Results…
Premier League: Aston Villa 2-1 Man Utd | Spurs 1-2 Liverpool | Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea | Everton 0-1 Arsenal | Bournemouth 1-1 Burnley | Brighton 0-0 Sunderland | Man City 3-0 West Ham | Wolves 0-2 Brentford | Leeds 4-1 Palace
La Liga: Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla | Villarreal 0-2 Barcelona (Table)
Bundesliga: Heidenheim 0-4 Bayern Munich | Leipzig 1-3 Leverkusen (Table)
Serie A: Juventus 2-1 Roma (Table)
TOP TALKING POINTS
Premier League Projections
Arsenal are still overwhelming favourites (69%) to win the Premier League, according to Opta’s prediction model. Mikel Arteta’s side are top of the league at Christmas for the third time in four seasons, but they were beaten to the title by Manchester City on both previous occasions. Arsenal are now two points clear of Man City — see the table here.
Manchester City are given a 24.8% chance of winning the title. Pep Guardiola’s side have won their last five league games, scoring 11 and conceding none across their last four. Meanwhile, Aston Villa are the only other side with above a 1% chance of taking the title, with Opta giving them a 4.8% probability. Villa, who are now seven points clear of fourth and three points off the top, have won 10 consecutive matches in all competitions for the first time in 111 years following their 2-1 win over Manchester United.
At the other end of the table, having equalled the longest Premier League winless start (17) which Sheffield United set in 2020-21, Wolves are given a 99% chance of relegation. Burnley (89%), West Ham (61%), Leeds (22%), and Nottingham Forest (11%) are the only other sides with double-digit relegation projections.
Mbappe Matches Record
Kylian Mbappe equalled Cristiano Ronaldo’s club record of 59 goals in a calendar year for Real Madrid, scoring a penalty in a 2–0 home win over Sevilla in La Liga. Ronaldo set the mark in 2013, scoring 59 goals in 50 games at the age of 28. Mbappe has now matched it with 59 goals in the same number of appearances across all competitions, having just turned 27. With this being Real Madrid’s final match of the calendar year, Mbappe will not have the chance to surpass the record this year.
Mbappe marked his goal by reproducing Ronaldo’s celebration, telling RMTV later: “I wanted to give him a little nod because he has always been affectionate with me. Normally, I have my own celebration, but I wanted to share that with him, and like I said, he’s been my idol since I was a kid. I have a very good relationship with him, he’s a friend now.”
Although the Frenchman needed nine more games to reach the tally, his numbers compare favourably with Ronaldo’s at the same age. Ronaldo had scored 272 goals and provided 106 assists (378 total goal contributions) in 531 games when he reached 27. Mbappe, meanwhile, has 410 goals and 176 assists (586 goal contributions) in 544 matches.
See the European Golden Boot race here.
AFCON Schedule Change
The Africa Cup of Nations will move to a four-year cycle from 2029, ending its current biennial schedule. The surprise announcement came after a meeting of the Confederation of African Football (Caf) executive committee, with officials acknowledging that the existing format has disrupted the global football calendar, as most recent tournaments have been staged midway through the European club season.
At the same time, Caf president Patrice Motsepe announced plans to introduce an African Nations League, scheduled to begin in 2029. Like its European counterpart, matches are expected to be played during international windows in September, October, and November. The competition will see all 54 member associates split into four zones, with six nations in the Northern zone and 16 nations in the Eastern, Western, Central and Southern zones.
POLL
Do you think Kylian Mbappe will exceed Cristiano Ronaldo’s legacy at Real Madrid?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> Liverpool fear Alexander Isak has sustained a significant lower leg injury; scans will determine the extent of his absence (More) | Mohamed Salah apologised to his Liverpool teammates after complaining of being “thrown under the bus” by the club (More)
> The Football Association of Ireland has confirmed the 15 clubs that will form the new FAI National League, which will kick off in Autumn 2026 (More)
> Hearts maintain their lead at the top of the Scottish Premiership following a 2-1 win over fourth-placed Rangers (More) | Wilfried Nancy secures his first win as Celtic manager with a 3-1 home win over Aberdeen (More); dive deeper into whether there’s a genuine three-way Scottish title race (More)
> Brazilian defender Thiago Silva, 41, has joined Portuguese league leaders FC Porto until the end of the season (More)
> Chelsea women beat Liverpool 9-1 in the Women’s League Cup quarter-finals; see every result (More)
Americas
> The NWSL Players Association rejected a proposal from the league's board that would have allowed teams to circumvent salary cap restrictions (More)
> New Mexico United’s Zico Bailey has won the 2025 USL Championship Goal of the Year award (Watch)
Rest of the World
> The Asian Football Confederation said it will launch a Nations League contest in a bid to improve competition standards (More)
> Four players have been banned from all football-related activity for several years for their part in match-fixing offences in Australia's A-League (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Friday’s Poll: Do you think Manchester City can successfully replace Pep Guardiola if he leaves at the end of the season?
🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ 👍 Yes (44%)
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🙅♂️ Nope (53%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (3%)
Your punditry takes:
👍 T.H: “I'm a big fan of what Pep Guardiola has done. But once football's spearhead of innovation, he has, over the past couple of years, become a victim of his own reputation. He seems, at times, to be either obsessed with change for change's sake or a prisoner to his increasingly overly mechanical approach. Creativity has been stifled. Methods, once new and ground-breaking, have become tired as he too often refuses to accept that the rest of football may have caught up.”
🙅♂️ J.M: “Hard to replace arguably the greatest manager of the past couple of decades (maybe ever?). It is also almost always difficult to replace a manager who has been in place for so many years (see: Arsenal with Wenger, Man U with Fergie, etc.).”
✍️ W.G: “If successful means ‘winning’, then that is reasonable to say they can replace him, given the overall talent level at the club. But there is only one Pep; no coach is like him, there is no option to insert a similar coaching talent, so there is no such thing as successful as in ‘Pep act-alike.’ This is unlike the change at Liverpool. Slot had similar tendencies to Klopp but differed in many ways; those just happened to be among the best of ways to fit the existing talent well.”
EXTRA TIME
Wolves’ terrible Premier League season in numbers.
… and does league position matter at Christmas? (stats)
Why is Afcon taking place in December?
What it’s like to be a referee in Napoli-Milan. (ref cam)
Kane reaches 100 Bundesliga goals the fastest.
Viking FK release golden kit for their first league win in 34 years.
Premier League injuries—club by club.
GAME FACE ON
Question: Which player won the inaugural Premier League Golden Boot in 1992–93?
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
My idol, the best player in the history of Real Madrid and a reference in world football. It’s an honour for me.
Answer
Teddy Sheringham.
