GM football fans. It’s Friday, Dec. 12 - The latest Champions League projections, Serie A’s overseas game in Australia has hit a roadblock, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
KEY FIXTURES
Premier League MD16: Arsenal vs. Wolves, Sat 13, 20:00 GMT / 15:00 ET. Arsenal have won their last eight Premier League games against the visitors, while Wolves are winless in all 15 league games this season. Their two points are a joint-low after 15 games in top-flight history. Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City, Sun 14, 14:00 GMT / 10:00 ET. Seventeen of Crystal Palace’s last 20 Premier League wins have come when they’ve had lower than 50% possession. Meanwhile, City have won their last three Premier League matches, scoring at least three goals in each win. West Ham vs. Aston Villa, Sun 14, 14:00 GMT / 10:00 ET. West Ham are winless in their last five Premier League games against Villa, having won five in a row against them before that. Villa are in fine form, having won nine of their last 10 league games, winning the most points in the division from 28 September onwards (27). See every Premier League Matchday 16 fixture here and table here.
Results…
Europa League: Basel 1-2 Aston Villa | Celtic 0-3 Roma | Midtylland 1-0 Genk | Ferencvaros 2-1 Rangers | Lyon 2-1 Go ahead | Ultecht 1-2 Nottm’ Forest (Full Results)
Conference League: Shelbourne 0-3 Crystal Palace (Full Results)
WSL: Aston Villa 3-0 Liverpool (Table)
TOP TALKING POINTS
Champions League Projections
Arsenal are now 22.5% favourites to win the Champions League after Matchday 6 in the league phase, according to Opta’s prediction model. Mikel Arteta’s side, the only team to have won all six of their league phase matches, are the first side to have guaranteed a spot in the knock-out rounds with two matches remaining. See the Champions League standings here.
Bayern Munich are the second favourites with an 18.9% chance, having lost just one game so far against leaders Arsenal. Meanwhile, holders Paris Saint-Germain (13.5%) and Manchester City (10.5%) are the only clubs with a double-digit chance. Liverpool, who began the season as 20.4% favourites, are now sixth in Opta’s projections with a 4.9% chance. Arne Slot’s side currently sit ninth, one place outside of the automatic qualification zone.
Barcelona (6.6%), Real Madrid (4.2%), Chelsea (3.3%), Inter (3%), and Atletico Madrid (2.8%) complete the top 10.
Overseas Match Obstacle
The proposal by Serie A to stage the first-ever competitive domestic league fixture abroad appears to be on the verge of collapse. The Asian Football Confederation (AFC) has reportedly raised significant objections regarding the authorisation process, leaving the plans to host AC Milan and Como in Perth, Australia, in doubt.
The AFC, of which Australia is a member, has reportedly insisted the game cannot be marketed as an official Serie A fixture to avoid conflicting with the local A-League. It also demanded that match officials come from its own organisation rather than Italy’s refereeing body. Serie A clubs view these conditions as a major compromise to sporting integrity, particularly with league points at stake.
In October, the Spanish top-flight called off plans to hold a regular-season game this month between Villarreal and Barcelona in Miami, Florida. The decision was made due to the negative reaction in Spain. On Wednesday, La Liga president Javier Tebas reiterated his ambition to stage a league match abroad, identifying Saudi Arabia as a potential host.
Football Regulator in Effect
From Friday, the Independent Football Regulator (IFR) will formally have the power to investigate what it deems to be unsuitable owners across English football. Incumbent owners and senior executives may be forced out of their positions, though such a move would be considered a last resort.
The IFR has now published its new owners and directors (ODSE) test, and the regulatory body claims it will be significantly different from what has been in place until now. The new test will hold owners, directors, and senior executives to higher standards than currently exist and will apply to a broader set of roles. It will also carry greater enforcement powers than those currently used by the Premier League and EFL, including the possibility of criminal penalties for serious offences.
New buyers will not be subject to the IFR regime until May 2026, when all owners, directors, and senior executives will need to be approved under the ODSE test.
POLL
Do you think that the club you support should be where you grew up and/or who your family supports?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> AC Milan, Napoli, or Inter can finish this weekend as leaders of the Serie A table; see upcoming fixtures (More) and table (More)
> Manchester United has reported a net loss of £6.6 million for the first financial quarter, a significant downturn attributed to reduced broadcasting revenue and ticket sales (More)
> Women’s World Cup champions Spain widened its points lead atop the Fifa rankings over the second-placed United States (More)
> Lens will look to maintain their one-point lead over Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1 when they face Nice, who have lost seven straight matches (More)
Americas
> Leg 1 of the Liga MX Apertura final between Tigres and Toluca will conclude shortly after publication (Live Result)
> The U.S. men’s national team will face 19th-ranked Senegal on May 31 at the Bank of America Stadium ahead of the World Cup (More)
> World Cup winner Alyssa Naeher has re-signed with the NWSL’s Chicago Red Stars through 2026 (More)
> Federal prosecutors in Brooklyn are looking to drop fraud charges against a former Fox executive convicted of trying to bribe football executives in exchange for lucrative broadcasting contracts (More)
Rest of the World
> Western United has received hope of returning to the A-League after reaching an agreement to avoid being wound up by the Australian Taxation Office (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Yesterday’s Poll: Are you managing to keep up with the number of matches on at the moment?
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 👍 Yes (49%)
🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️🙅♂️ Nope (48%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (3%)
Your punditry takes:
👍 G.M: “I love having so many games to watch at this time of the year. The only thing to not like is the commentators giving out the scores of other games that l am taping to watch later.”
👍 M.T: “It’s great. I can watch tons of it and when I miss a match, I can watch the replay. I love being able to watch football from all around the world like this…even while I work.”
🙅♂️ W.D: “Schedule congestion combined with the number of streaming platforms/ subscriptions you have to have just to follow the club you support makes it hard to keep up with what’s going on in other areas of the world.”
🙅♂️ M.A: “I used to keep up closely with Champions League, but have completely lost track of it since the updated format and generally because of the over-saturation of games overall. I've come to care more about a team's domestic campaign than the European competitions maybe because that format seems more "pure" compared to the new format.”
EXTRA TIME
The MLS Cup final, but from the ref cam view. (must-watch)
Messi to unveil 70ft statue of himself on 'GOAT' tour.
What is the ‘weirdest’ football league in the world—and why?
Haaland’s hilarious interview with the CBS cast.
Iniesta rebrands his World Tour cycling team.
How footballers really train for set pieces.
Every storyline from each group at AFCON.
The best stats from the Champions League this week.
GAME FACE ON
Question: Who Am I…
I have won a continental treble.
Before joining my current club, I played at Porto and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
My highest-ever ranking in the Ballon d’Or is third.
I was born in 2000.
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
We were eating dinner, and I checked if there were any games. My missus said, ‘I'm sick of football. We watch it all the time.’ I said, ‘Yeah, that’s the reason we’re sitting here.’ So we watched it.
Answer
Vitinha.
