GM football fans. It’s Tuesday, Jan. 27 - The latest Premier League projections following Arsenal’s loss, an inquest has formally connected the heading of a football with brain disease, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
KEY FIXTURE
Coppa Italia last 16 (Jan 27): Fiorentina vs. Como, 20:00 GMT / 15:00 ET. Fiorentina have struggled in the Serie A this season and currently sit in the relegation zone after losing 2-1 at home to Cagliari. The opposite is true for Como, who have had back-to-back wins and are pushing for a historic first European qualification and potentially a Champions League spot. Since returning to the Serie A, Como have already won twice in Florence, including a 1-2 victory in September.
Results…
TOP TALKING POINTS
Premier League Projections
Aston Villa have moved to second-favourites to win the Premier League for the first time this season, according to Opta’s prediction model. Villa, who sit four points behind Arsenal in third, are level on points with Manchester City and have a 9.3% chance of winning the title.
Despite their loss to Manchester United on Sunday, Arsenal are still 81.7% favourites in the English top flight. Meanwhile, Man City have an 8.7% chance. All three teams are almost guaranteed Champions League qualification, while Chelsea (36.39%), Liverpool (33.85%), and Man United (24.29%) are battling for the fourth and potentially fifth qualification spot.
At the other end of the table, Wolves (99%), Burnley (97%), and West Ham (81%) are by far the most likely teams to face relegation to the Championship. Leeds (8%) and Nottingham Forest (7.9%) are the only other sides with a greater than 2% chance of going down.
Dive deeper into what history says about Arsenal’s title chances here.
Major Inquest Finding
Repeatedly heading a football "likely" contributed to the brain disease, which was a factor in the death of former footballer Gordon McQueen, an inquest has found. It’s one of the clearest formal coronial findings in UK football, explicitly connecting heading with CTE. McQueen, the former Scotland and Manchester United centre-back, died in 2023 at the age of 70, two years after being diagnosed with vascular dementia.
Senior coroner Jonathan Heath told the court: "I am satisfied that on the balance of probability that repeatedly heading footballs contributed to his developing chronic traumatic encephalopathy.” Earlier this month, McQueen's daughter Hayley, a Sky Sports presenter, gave evidence to the court that her father would come home from training with Manchester United and lie down in a darkened room with a headache.
Research in 2019, funded by the PFA and the FA, compared the causes of death of 7,676 professional footballers born between 1900 and 1976 with 23,000 matched individuals from the general population. It found that neurodegenerative disease was three-and-a-half times more likely in former players. The findings prompted action from the FA, which advises that no children under 12 should practice heading in training.
Tragedy in Mexico
A group of armed attackers killed 11 people and injured 12 at a football field after a match in the Mexican city of Salamanca. Cesar Prieto, the mayor of the town of Salamanca in central Guanajuato state, said in a statement that the gunmen arrived at the end of a match while families were socialising. The motive behind the shooting is not yet clear.
The mayor speculated that the attack was part of a “crime wave” in the city and appealed to the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, for help to control the violence. Analysts suggest the increase in violence is a result of a rivalry between two gangs. Guanajuato registered the highest number of murders in the whole of Mexico last year.
The state prosecutor’s office said it was investigating and coordinating with federal authorities to reinforce security in the area. “Unfortunately, there are criminal groups trying to subjugate authorities, something they are not going to achieve,” the mayor said.
POLL
Should heading the ball be banned at youth level?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> Newly promoted FC Thun are top of the Swiss Super League table by seven points (Table) | Former Arsenal defender Stephan Lichtsteiner has been announced as FC Basel’s new head coach (More)
> The German Bundesliga had record revenues with the 36 clubs in Germany’s top two divisions making €6.33bn (£5.49bn; $7.5bn) during the 2024-25 season (More) | Bayern Munich have opened talks with Harry Kane over a new contract until 2028 or 2029 (More)
> A group of investors led by former Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos has entered a period of exclusivity to buy La Liga club Sevilla thought to be worth €400m (£348.2m; $469.2m) (More)
> Hollywood-backed Wrexham have received £47.5m from the club’s owners, boosting the club’s funds without breaking EFL rules (More)
> Former AC Milan and Brazil striker Alexandre Pato has had talks with the owner of League Two’s Colchester United, who is seeking to sell the club (More)
Americas
> Brazil has asked Fifa to host the 2029 Fifa Club World Cup, with the country set to host the Women’s World Cup in 2027 (More)
> Trinity Rodman, the US national team forward, has signed a new three-year contract to stay with Washington Spirit and will be the NWSL’s highest-paid player (More) | Defending NWSL champions Gotham FC have signed two-time NCAA champion Jordynn Dudley (More)
> Brazilian Serie A’s Flamengo are in advanced talks with West Ham United over Lucas Paqueta after making a new bid of €41.25m (£35.8m; $48.9m) (More)
> USL Championship’s Lexington SC took a 2-1 victory against Orlando City SC to open its preseason (More)
Rest of the World
> Al Nassr retain second-place in the Saudi Pro League following a 1-0 win at home against Al Taawoun; see the SPL table (More)
> Senegal's Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko has described the incidents during the African Cup of Nations final against Morocco as "deplorable" and "painful" (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Yesterday’s Poll: Do you think a three-back formation can work in the modern game?
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 👍 Yes (62%)
🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🙅♂️ Nope (34%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (2%)
Your punditry takes:
👍 M.B: “Absolutely, any formation can work in the modern game if you have the correct personnel and the right manager to coach the tactics on a continual basis. The problems come when managers don't get the players onside, or the players have no respect for the manager, and they refuse to carry out their instructions properly.”
🙅♂️ R.M: “While it may be episodic at best, it’s clear that over an entire season and across multiple competitions, the answer is a definitive no!”
✍️ W.G: “The modern game is much too fluid to say that 3 in defence is always/only 3, or even always 3 centre backs. The numbers of a system are just a starting point, and people get way too hung up on them.”
EXTRA TIME
Every transfer from Europe’s top five leagues.
Meet the women’s team with 100 goals in 11 games.
Player receives yellow for ball-standing skill.
South Korea’s gorgeous World Cup away kit leaked.
The best free-kick from the weekend.
… and the best stats from the weekend’s football.
Puma release women-specific football boots.
GAME FACE ON
Question: What do these four players have in common?
Marcel Desailly. Paulo Sousa. Gerard Pique. Samuel Eto’o.
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
This Liverpool team is not suited to the Premier League
Answer
They’ve all won the Champions League in back-to-back seasons with two different clubs.
