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Good morning football fans. It’s Monday, June. 29 - World Cup projections following the group stage, the United States could bid to host the 2038 World Cup, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
KEY FIXTURES
2026 World Cup round of 32 (June 29): Brazil vs Japan, 13:00 ET / 18:00 BST. Japan have only beaten Brazil once in their 14 meetings (D2 L11), and that was in their most recent fixture, a 3-2 victory last October. Brazil, though, have kept back-to-back clean sheets after conceding at least one goal in each of their previous six matches before facing Haiti. Germany vs Paraguay, 16:30 ET / 21:30 BST. Paraguay advanced as one of the best third-placed finishers, while Germany finished at the head of Group E to secure a spot in the round of 32. In their three group-stage games, Germany scored 10 goals but failed to keep a clean sheet. Netherlands vs Morocco, 21:00 ET / 02:00 BST (June 30). The Netherlands topped Group F with seven points to breeze into the round of 32, while Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil, also claiming seven points from three games. Meanwhile, no other side in history has reached more men's World Cup semi-finals (5) or finals (3) without winning the trophy than the Netherlands. See the World Cup bracket here.
Results…
World Cup round of 32: South Africa 0-1 Canada
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TOP TALKING POINTS
World Cup Projections
France are favourites to win the 2026 World Cup following the conclusion of the group stage, with an 18.7% chance of lifting the trophy, according to Opta’s prediction model. Didier Deschamps’ side are one of just three nations to have secured a perfect record in the group stage, winning all three matches with a goal difference of +8. Argentina (+7 GD) and Mexico (+6 GD) are the only other sides to have won all three matches.
At the start of the tournament, Opta’s model projected Spain as the favourites, but they have now been leapfrogged by France and second-favourites Argentina, who are given a 16.3% chance of winning the competition. Spain are now third-favourites on 13.5%, while England (9.7%) have dropped to fourth-favourites, having been third in projections prior to the opening matches. Brazil (6.5%) complete the top five, with the Netherlands (5.1%) in sixth.
Despite ranking 13th in Opta’s post-group-stage projections, Mexico have made the joint-biggest rise since the initial projections, moving up seven places from 20th favourites. The United States also moved seven places, going from 18th to 11th, after finishing at the top of Group D with two wins and one loss.
See every nation’s chance of reaching each stage of the knockout rounds here.
US Potential World Cup Bid
The United States may bid to host the men’s 2038 World Cup, says Andrew Giuliani, the executive director of the White House’s World Cup task force. With Fifa considering expanding the World Cup even further from 48 to 64 teams, Giuliani is confident that the “United States can handle it.” He did not say whether a potential bid would be made by the US alone or alongside other nations, unlike the 2026 World Cup, which is being co-hosted by Canada and Mexico.
Giuliani confirmed that he has already spoken to U.S. President Donald Trump about the proposal. "There's no better country that's positioned to host a World Cup than the United States, and I think we're seeing that on social media," said Giuliani. "We have the stadiums built, so for the US, compared to other host nations, where it costs tens and tens of billions of dollars, you know, it costs us a couple billion."
The 2038 tournament is the next edition for which a bidding process will take place. The next men’s World Cup, in 2030, will be held across three nations, Spain, Portugal, and Morocco, with the opening three matches to be played in Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay, to mark the competition’s centenary year. The 2034 men’s World Cup has already been confirmed to be hosted in Saudi Arabia — see the stadiums being built for this tournament here.
Leading Goal Contributors
Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain players have scored the most goals at the 2026 World Cup so far, with 11 and 10 goals, respectively. Madrid forwards Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior both have four goals, with Jude Bellingham getting two and Arder Guler with one. PSG have the widest spread in the tournament, with seven different goalscorers, though Ousmane Dembele leads with four.
Crystal Palace and Sunderland, who have the joint-third highest club totals, are also the leading Premier League clubs for goals scored after the group stage, with seven goals each. Arsenal, Manchester United, and Newcastle United are joint-second among Premier League sides with five goals each. Erling Haaland, who is Manchester City’s only scorer at the World Cup, is the leading scorer among Premier League players at the tournament.
Overall, Premier League players have scored the most goals (43), though it’s by far the most-represented domestic league at the World Cup, with 182 players, including returning loanees. The other four of Europe’s big five leagues follow, with La Liga (26), Bundesliga (17), Ligue 1 (15), and Serie A (13). Major League Soccer is the only league in the top seven outside of Europe, with nine goals, six of which have come from Lionel Messi.
POLL
Following the group stage, who do you think will win the 2026 World Cup? (in order of projections)
ON THE BALL
Europe
> Harry Kane has become England’s all-time leading World Cup goalscorer, overtaking Gary Lineker, with 11 goals (More) | Reece James missed England’s game against Panama and is expected to miss the round-of-32 match at least as he recovers from a hamstring injury (More)
> AC Milan have agreed a club-record transfer fee to sign Paris Saint-Germain’s striker Goncalo Ramos, expected to be the most expensive Serie A signing since Romelu Lukaku for €74m in 2019 (More)
> Former German international Bastian Schweinsteiger defended his comments that African football is “wild”, “unorthodox”, and “perhaps not tactically driven” (More)
> Chelsea are interested in signing Sunderland midfielder Granit Xhaka, with reports suggesting that Sunderland turned down an £8m offer (More); The Blues are also looking to sell defender Trevoh Chalobah for around £35m, with Serie A’s Como pursuing the Englishman (More)
> Steve Clarke has resigned as Scotland’s head coach following their group-stage exit from the World Cup (More); dive deeper into where it went wrong for Scotland (More)
Americas
> Canada men’s national team have advanced to the round of 16 at the World Cup for the first time after beating South Africa 1-0; they will face Morocco or the Netherlands in the next round (More) | Sweden, Ghana, Ecuador, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Algeria, Paraguay, Senegal, and DR Congo have all qualified for the round of 32 through the third-place pathway (More)
> Lionel Messi has now scored six goals in Argentina’s three group stage games and became the first man to score in seven consecutive World Cup games (More); watch Lionel Messi’s free-kick goal (US link / UK link)
> Ticket prices for Portugal vs Croatia in Toronto for the round of 32 have increased dramatically, with the average price of the cheapest available resale ticket exceeding $3,000 (More) | France’s request to wear black armbands in honour of head coach Didier Deschamps’s mother was declined by Fifa, the French Football Federation said (More)
> USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino has reportedly been offered a contract extension that would keep him in charge through the 2030 World Cup (More) | Uruguay manager Marcelo Bielsa said, “What I gave Uruguayan football is nothing” after the nation was eliminated from the World Cup (More)
> Robert Lewandowski is set to join MLS side Chicago Fire, with an announcement to be made this week (More)
Rest of the World
> South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung has demanded an investigation into coach Hong Myung-bo after the country’s early exit from the World Cup (More)
> North Korea has been accused of broadcasting 2026 World Cup matches without securing broadcast rights (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Friday’s Poll: Who do you think will be the Golden Boot winner at the 2026 World Cup?
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🇦🇷 Lionel Messi (42%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🇧🇷 Vinicius Junior (7%)
🟨 🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ 🇫🇷 Kylian Mbappe (35%)
🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🇳🇴 Erling Haaland (11%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (5%)
Your punditry takes:
🇦🇷 D.L: “Still the best player in the world. Still the most clinical player in the world. And all of his team play to get the best out of him. Lethal combo.”
🇫🇷 J.M: “I think France will go right to the final, and Mbappe looks to be in very good goal-scoring form, so I think he has the best chance. I would probably have said Haaland, but I do not think Norway will go far enough for him to beat Mbappe.”
🇧🇷 C.K: “Vinny is playing for his place in Madrid’s team next year. That’s extra motivation none of the other Golden Boot contenders has. He’s got more G+A than World Cup games in his career, which is crazy too.”
EXTRA TIME
Here’s how to win a World Cup penalty shootout. (data)
The best XI from the World Cup group stage.
Analysing the USMNT’s knock-out path.
Inside Argentina’s football development system.
Ten things Thierry Henry can’t live without.
How Fifa's president is jetting around the World Cup.
Elvis Presley x Sunderland kit collab.
GAME FACE ON
Question: Which match during the 2026 World Cup group stage marked the 1,000th game of the competition?
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
That shows the quality of African football, which is not always described as really good football but it is really good.
Answer
Tunisia vs Japan (0-4).
