Good morning football fans. It’s Wednesday, July. 8 - The latest World Cup projections, Fifa-Uefa’s war of words continues, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.
TOP TALKING POINTS
Latest World Cup Projections
France are favourites to win the 2026 World Cup following the conclusion of the round of 16. According to Opta’s prediction model, Didier Deschamps’ side have a 27.45% chance of winning the competition, despite both of their potential opponents en route to the final — Morocco in the quarter-finals and then either Spain or Belgium in the semis — being among Fifa’s top 10-ranked sides. See every nation’s path to the final here.
Spain are second favourites, both by Opta’s measure (22.1%) and on a popular prediction market, where prices are set by real-time trading. They began the tournament as favourites, with their downgrade reflecting less convincing performances than France, including a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in their opener, as well as their quarter-final opponents, Belgium, performing above pre-tournament expectations.
On the other side of the bracket, England are the competition’s third favourites, with a 16.6% chance. They face Norway in the quarter-finals, who, despite being 19th in Fifa's rankings, are the fifth favourites to win the competition. Meanwhile, Argentina are fourth favourites, with a projected 14.5% chance, after coming back from two goals down against Egypt to reach the quarter-finals.
See all the upcoming quarter-final fixtures here.
FIFA Bites Back
The war of words between Fifa and Uefa continues as football’s world governing body accuses its European counterpart of hypocrisy. It comes after Uefa said Fifa had crossed a “red line” that undermined the integrity of the competition by suspending United States striker Folarin Balogun’s one-match ban.
In a statement attributed to Mohammad Al Kamali, the chair of Fifa’s disciplinary committee, Fifa said that “the overturning of red cards is a common disciplinary measure” in Uefa-affiliated leagues, “yet this has never raised concerns about crossing any ‘red line’”. While Fifa’s statement did not directly mention US President Donald Trump’s intervention, it did state that the disciplinary committee acted independently of its executive, which is run by Fifa president Gianni Infantino.
In related news, following their exit from the competition, United States manager Mauricio Pochettino insisted that the situation involving Folarin Balogun had no bearing on their loss. He also took issue with those who criticised him over the process that cleared Balogun to play. “I am so frustrated and disappointed with the people that are supposed to understand the situation,” Pochettino said. “What is the point of insulting or receiving a lot of bad messages and threats if my position is that I am the head coach?”
Ronaldo’s World Cup Farewell
Cristiano Ronaldo has confirmed that he has played his last World Cup game after Portugal’s 1-0 loss to Spain in the round of 16. The 41-year-old did not confirm, however, that it was his last game for Portugal, as he did not wish to make any “decisions in the heat of the moment” about his future with the national team.
Ronaldo also said that he leaves the competition at peace, having not won the World Cup in six attempts with Portugal. Instead, the five-time Ballon d’Or winner believes Portugal’s 2016 European Championship title was as big an achievement as winning the World Cup. “I will wake up tomorrow the same way I woke up today: with a clear conscience. I gave my all. I won three titles with Portugal. Before Cristiano, Portugal had never won a big trophy. The best trophy I won with the national team was in 2016, which for me has the same dimension as the World Cup. So I repeat: I leave here with a clear conscience. Tomorrow will be another day, and life goes on.”
Ronaldo’s former teammate, Wayne Rooney, speculated that Portugal players don’t enjoy playing alongside Ronaldo in the same way Argentina players do with Lionel Messi, while describing the pair as “two of the best players the game has ever seen.” Ronaldo will be 43 by the time of Euro 2028, which will be hosted in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland.
See all of Ronaldo’s stats at World Cups here.
POLL
Does failure to win the World Cup title affect Cristiano Ronaldo's legacy?
ON THE BALL
Europe
> The BBC will not travel to the United States until the World Cup semi-finals, as per The Telegraph (More); a peak audience of 9.1 million people tuned in to watch England’s win over Mexico on BBC, the biggest TV broadcast for a live UK broadcast between 02:00 and 04:00 (More) | The FA is considering whether to appeal against England defender Jarell Quansah’s red card, which came during the round of 16 tie against Mexico (More) | Aston Villa midfielder Amadou Onana suffered an ACL injury during Belgium’s win over the United States and will be out for six to seven months (More)
> Ligue 1 side Paris FC have announced the appointment of former Chelsea manager Liam Rosenior (More) | Monaco appoint Filipe Luis as their new head coach until June 2028 after a successful stint with Brazilian club Flamengo (More)
> Serie A side Juventus are considering a move for England defender John Stones as he is available on a free transfer (More)
> Jorge Jesus is set to become the new manager of the Portugal national team following Roberto Martinez’s departure (More)
Americas
> Argentina have advanced to the World Cup quarter-finals following a 3-2 win over Egypt after going two goals down with 11 minutes of regular time left (More) | FIFA backed its referee Raphael Clause after US President Donald Trump questioned his integrity following the red card shown to United States striker Folarin Balogun (More)
> United States manager Mauricio Pochettino says he will take time off before making a decision about his future (More)
> NWSL side Gotham FC will play home matches at Etihad Park in Queens, New York, from 2028, in what will be a “world-class” 25,000-seat stadium (More)
Rest of the World
> Zimbabwean footballer Divine Lunga has survived a gun attack in Johannesburg, South Africa (More)
ROUTERS’ VOICE
Yesterday’s Poll: Was FIFA justified in expanding the World Cup to 48 teams?
🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 👍 Yes (61%)
🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🙅♂️ Nope (37%)
🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ ✍️ Other (2%)
Your punditry takes:
👍 N.M: “The close matches and underdog runs have been great to watch. Getting the game popular all across the world is a big part of the World Cup. More kids seeing players from their country playing at the highest level will be great for the sport.”
👍 M.M: “Apprehensive at first, but this is a well-run event and many nice surprises from teams that would not have made the 32-team field. The real test will be how well this number will be managed four years from now.”
🙅♂️ L.J: “Not at all. In the main, the teams you'd expect to qualify for the final 32 did, and vice versa with the teams you expected to be eliminated. I barely kept abreast of the results of those games, let alone watched them and aside from boycotting Qatar '22, that's unheard of for me. It's also skewed a load of ‘firsts’, first time X team has reached the knockout stages, the highest number of African nations to reach the knockout stages, etc. If the proposed 64-team format becomes a reality, they'll kill the World Cup.”
EXTRA TIME
Every transfer in Europe’s top five leagues.
… and grading the big-money signings in men’s football.
New York’s 1-million-Lego-brick World Cup trophy.
… and meet the designer of NYC’s charming World Cup campaign.
Photos of Cristiano Ronaldo at six World Cups.
John Stones pranks Tuchel with shoulder injury.
The Trionda Final ball has been revealed.
GAME FACE ON
Question: Who missed the vital penalty in the 1994 World Cup Final penalty shoot-out to hand the trophy to Brazil?
Scroll below for the answer.
Daily Wordle: Guess the football-related word, from player names to classic phrases, in six tries or fewer. Play it here.
I’ve won Euro 2016 and for me it has same dimension as the World Cup… I won three titles with Portugal, before me it was zero titles.
Answer
Roberto Baggio.
