GM football fans. It’s Tuesday, May. 06 - Champions League projections, Trent Alexander-Arnold announces Liverpool departure, and everything else you need to know. Forwarded this email? Sign up here.

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KEY FIXTURES

UEFA Champions League, Semi-Final, Leg 2, 20:00 / 15:00. Inter Milan vs. Barcelona, Agg 3-3. Barca have won just one of their six away Champions League matches against Inter. Overall, they have managed five wins in 24 matches in Italy (21%), their lowest success rate in any foreign country in the competition. Plus, Inter are unbeaten in 15 home games in the competition, their longest undefeated run on their turf in Europe since the 1980s. See predicted line-ups here.

Results…

• Premier League: Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Table)

• WSL: Brighton 4-2 Arsenal (Table)

TOP TALKING POINTS

Champions League Projections

The Champions League semi-final second legs take place on Tuesday and Wednesday. If the ties finish level on aggregate, it will go to extra time and, if necessary, penalties.

On Tuesday, Inter host Barcelona at San Siro. Following their 3-3 draw in the first leg, Opta’s prediction model favours Barcelona, giving them a 56% chance of reaching the final. The likelihood of extra time is 24.7%. In team news, striker Robert Lewandowski has returned to Barcelona’s matchday squad, and Lautaro Martinez has returned for Inter.

On Wednesday, Paris Saint-Germain host Arsenal after their 1-0 away win at the Emirates. Arsenal have never overturned a home first-leg defeat in European competition, losing all five ties—most recently against Barcelona in the 2015-16 round of 16. Meanwhile, PSG have won 18 of the 19 Uefa competition ties in which they have recorded a first-leg away win.

Overall, PSG are now 41.6% favourites to win the tournament, and Barcelona are second with 26.6%. Inter are third (20.6%) and Arsenal are fourth (11.2%).

Trent Confirms Departure

Trent Alexander-Arnold has announced he will leave Liverpool at the end of the season, with the defender expected to join Real Madrid. Watch his video announcement here.

The 26-year-old has entered the final stages of negotiations with Real as a free agent, with reports suggesting he will sign a five-year deal. Liverpool reportedly offered him a new contract that would have made him one of the highest-paid full-backs in the world, but the Liverpool-born player says he wants a new challenge away from his boyhood club.

Alexander-Arnold joined Liverpool’s academy at age six and debuted in 2016. He has made 352 appearances, winning eight major honours, including the Champions League, two Premier League titles and the FA Cup.

Dive deeper into Liverpool’s potential right-back replacements here.

CWC Expulsion Verdict Incoming

A verdict is expected today (May 6) on Mexican side Leon’s legal battle with Fifa over their Club World Cup exclusion. Leon were removed from the tournament due to shared ownership with Pachuca, another Mexican club.

Fifa is already planning a one-off play-off match between Los Angeles FC and Club America if the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) rules in its favour. LAFC were runners-up in the 2023 Concacaf Champions League, while Club America are the highest-ranked Concacaf team not yet qualified.

Meanwhile, 30-time Costa Rican champions Alajuelense have also appealed to CAS, arguing they should fill the vacant spot based on coefficient ranking. Entry into the Club World Cup is worth an initial $9.55m plus a share of the $1bn in total prize money, depending on performance.

Everything you need to know about next month’s Club World Cup is here.

POLL

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ON THE BALL

Europe

> Carlo Ancelotti and Real Madrid have reached an agreement over the terms of his departure, with the Italian coach expected to leave before the end of the season (More)

> France’s Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin has apologised to Liverpool fans three years after wrongly blaming them for the chaotic scenes before the Champions League final at Stade de France (More)

> London City Lionesses are the first team with no affiliation with a men’s club to earn a place in the Women’s Super League (More) | Football authorities in Britain could be forced to pay towards the care costs of former players who have suffered brain conditions caused by heading balls (More)

> Arsene Wenger, currently serving as Fifa’s Chief of Global Football Development, has said that Europa League winners should not be qualified for the Champions League (More)

> Wolfsburg has fired Ralph Hasenhuttl as coach two games before the end of the season after eight matches without a win in the Bundesliga (More)

Americas

> With their 1-0 win, Sporting KC became the first team in MLS history to win a game without attempting a single shot in the contest (More)

> USL Dallas has officially launched as Atletico Dallas ahead of the 2027 season (More)

> Boca Juniors dropped to second place in Group A of the Argentine Primera Division Apertura tournament after being held to a 1-1 draw at Tigre (More)

> A Colombian top-flight match between Union Magdalena and Once Caldas was suspended in the 80th minute after Magdalena fans invaded the pitch (More)

Rest of the World

> The men’s A-League Finals Series fixtures have been confirmed, starting on Friday, May 9 (More)

ROUTERS’ VOICE

Yesterday’s Poll: Inter Milan vs Barcelona — who do you think will go through to the final in Tuesday’s Champions League match?

🟨 🟨 🟨 ⬜️ ⬜️ ⬜️ 🇮🇹 Inter Milan (36%)

🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🇪🇸 Barcelona (64%)

Your punditry takes:

• 🇮🇹 L.K: “Inter are so strong defensively and break out so efficiently. With Barcelona's backline pressing forward so much, it gives Inter even better break out opportunities.”

• 🇮🇹 R.J: “If we man-mark Yamal and use set-pieces like we did in the first leg, we should go through comfortably. Barca had one outlet in the first leg (Yamal), we have many.”

• 🇪🇸 T.C: “These are the types of matches that Raphinha decides to shine and destroy. Let's see!”

• 🇪🇸 C.V.S: “Barcelona are more hungry to be in a Champions League final. The fans, myself included, have been waiting for this since 2015. Raphinha, Ferran Torres, and Lamine Yamal must create and finish those chances however they can. Also, glad that Fermin Lopez finally scored over the weekend.”

EXTRA TIME

Everything we know about next season’s PL shirts.

How Alexander-Arnold redefined the right-back role.

… and Jamie Carragher weighs in on TAA’s exit.

NWSL’s April team of the month.

Champions League final ball colours leaked.

Real Madrid legend you’ve (probably) never heard of. (video)

The youngest starting XIs in PL history.

New Camp Nou turf getting laid is satisfying.*

*Link was broken in Friday’s edition

GAME FACE ON

Question: In the 2009–10 Champions League semi-final, Inter beat Barcelona 3–1 in the first leg but lost 1–0 in the return leg at the Camp Nou. Who was sent off for Inter in that second leg?

Scroll below for the answer.

ON TODAY

Champions League, SF

• Inter Milan vs Barcelona (Agg 3-3) (20:00)

Scottish Premiership Play-offs, QF

• Partick Thistle vs Ayr United (19:45)

*All time in UK. ET -5. CDT -6. PDT -8. MDT -7. CET +1.

Answer

Thiago Motta was sent off after 28 minutes.

Want more? Try our daily football Wordle – guess the name of a current or former player in six tries. Play it here.